The Yakker

Gammons is to baseball what Aristotle is to philosophy.

Very few people who are in tune with the baseball world miss an entry in Peter Gammons blog, but just to make sure I felt compelled to post this. Today’s entry is a very strong reflection on the volatility of prospects and as a prospect prognosticator it is valuable for us to put ourselves in check every once in a while. Besides that, if a Hall of Famer like Gammons says it, I’m on board with it.

R.A. stands for rancid and atrocious

The Twins acquisition of veteran shortstop Orlando Cabrera is a nice move as he’s clearly better than the options they had in house, but there is one question, “Can he pitch?” After a weekend series with the Angels in which they were outscored 35-15 and outhit 52-30, it was a lackluster effort on all accounts, but clearly one that improved pitching could’ve reduced the damage.

“It seemed like everyone they sent up there had two hits,” Twins first baseman Justin Morneau told the Minneapolis Star Tribune.

That should come as no surprise given the fact the team ERA sits at the high water mark (4.65) since 2000, when they posted a 5.14 ERA on 93-loss squad. “You have to suck it up in this game,” manager Ron Gardenhire said. “No one is going to feel sorry for you. We have to find a way and we have to figure out how to get people out and get the ball where we need to get it. The solutions are few and far between after general manager Bill Smith failed to acquire pitching help at the trading deadline. The first might be wait for a team to pass any veteran starting pitcher through waivers and then put on your negotiating tap shoes to get something done asap. The second and far more likely scenario would be combing through the upper levels of your minor league system for possible help.

A reliever like Anthony Slama could certainly help a bullpen that is clearly overworked and licking it’s wounds. Sure, he hasn’t pitched above Double-A, but a 12.6 dominance rate (K/9IP) and 2.8 command rate (K/BB) suggest that the worst case scenario would be still slightly better than guys like R.A. Dickey and Bobby Keppel. Hell, at least Slama has an idea where his pitches are going when he releases them and no, I’m not referring to the upper deck seats above the right field baggy. Other possible names to watch might include Rob Delaney, Jeff Manship, Armando Gabino, and Phil Humber. None possess the upside of Slama, but again, a worst case scenario is as bad as Dickey and Keppel. Slama has long-term potential in fantasy leagues, but it’s likely a couple more years before he carves out a role at the major league level.

So the Twins stare the postseason in the crosshairs and know what they need to do–find pitching. If they don’t soon, it may be time to schedule a bullpen session for Cabrera.

Liriano is Spanglish for "man who can't pitch."

I trumpeted Francisco Liriano as a guy who would return to breakout form this season and I couldn’t have been more wrong. Now I’m joining the push to get fantasy owners to ignore him altogether. He’s been bothered lately by swelling in his forearm and yet, he claims to feel no pain. The Twins are hurting for quality pitching after Kevin Slowey went down for the season with a wrist injury and it’s clear Liriano isn’t going to provide that boost. It’s tough to see why guys like Rob Delaney and Anthony Slama aren’t called to the majors to booster the bullpen and starters like well, nobody come up to join the rotation. Yes, the Twins couldn’t acquire a starter at the deadline and don’t really have much major-league ready in the upper levels of the minors. I was at the game on Saturday and Twins hurlers (emphasis on hurl) weren’t fooling anyone, so unless recent acqusition, shortstop Orlando Cabrera, can pitch, the rest of the season could wear on Twins fans everywhere.

Baseball's answer to Lebron James

Leading up to the 2009 MLB draft the hype was building surrounding San Diego State hurler Stephen Strasburg. By the time the draft rolled around, it seems almost as though Strasburg would arrive in the Nationals clubhouse and turn sunflower seeds into bread and Gatorade into wine. The hype has begun much earlier for the guy who most experts have as the top pick in the 2010 draft, high school phenom Bryce Harper.

The impressive youngster has the leading role in one of those fables, one in which he reportedly hit a home run 570 feet.

The fine folks at Fan Graphs have a pretty throrough scouting report on Harper and I believe you’ll see someone in your deep keeper fantasy leagues draft him next spring.

Peavy isn't going to like his new home ballpark.

It was a busy day in the AL Central and while the major players all made moves, the one that appears of the highest profile could actually be the one that brings in the least return. The deal I am referring to is the one that sent Jake Peavy to the White Sox for pitchers Clayton Richard, Adam Russell, Dexter Carter, and Aaron Poreda.

The most glaring issue is the tendon Peavy tore in his right ankle in early June. He has progressed in his rehab and could return to the mound sometime in August. While the run support he’ll get from the Pale Hose lineup will be noticeably better, he’ll probably need it.

Obviously the move from Petco and to the American League are two strikes against Peavy. In the NL he gets to face a pitcher once in every nine batters which he’ll no longer get the benefit of in the AL. The change in ballpark is exaggerated by the fact he arrives at one of the most homer friendly ballparks in baseball. This combined with the fact his fly ball ratio has been climbing steadily ever since a career-best mark back in 2006.

Another interesting split is his home versus road ERA, which is 3.58 and 4.60 respectively. This coincidental stat runs parallel to the same split when you consider his career totals. It’s not difficult to anticipate a further slide in his home numbers given the less than nurturing confines of U.S. Cellular Field (his new home).

It seems the debate now is over where Peavy will rank among starting pitchers both this season and beyond. Some experts are debating whether or not he’d be in their top 10 fantasy pitchers next season if he’s 100 percent healthy and I honestly don’t think that is what we should be debating. My opinion on this is far more extreme. In fact, I’ll go on record in saying I would rather have Poreda than Peavy next season. That doesn’t mean Poreda will be among the elite, it simply clarifies the massive collapse I expect from the veteran Peavy.

Just wanted to drop a quick post to let people know that I have posted my TOP 25 PROSPECTS rankings in the prospect page link on the left hand side of this page. Enjoy and as always I look forward to providing more details as to why I ranked the prospects this way and look forward to your feedback.

Pablo has been feasting on NL pitching.

When you spend some time delving deeper into the numbers sometimes some surprising things rise to the surface. After looking at hitters stats FOR THE LAST 30 days, here are some I felt may be interesting to fantasy owners.

• Athletics catcher Kurt Suzuki leads American League backstops in hits, RBI, and total bases and is second in runs.

• Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero is third in homers and RBI, second in runs, and leads National League catchers in total bases and hits.

• Royals first baseman Billy Butler has more hits than all AL first basemen not named Miguel Cabrera.

• Braves “utility player” Martin Prado leads NL first basemen in hits and seems poised for a big second half. Last year he hit .327 with two homers, 26 runs, 27 RBI, and two steals in 189 at bats from July through the end of the season.

• Cardinals Skip Schumaker leads NL second basemen in hits and runs.

• Is there a hotter hitter than Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki? Over the last 30 he leads NL shortstops in homers and runs, is second in RBI and total bases, is fourth in steals, and sixth in hits.

• Jays third baseman Scott Rolen may be old, but he leads guys manning the AL hot corner in hits.

• Okay, so maybe it’s Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval who can challenge Tulowitzki for the hottest hitter award. Over the last 30 days Pablo is first in homers, RBI, hits, and total bases, is fourth in runs, and sixth in steals among NL third basemen.

• Angels outfielder Juan Rivera leads all AL outfielders in long balls.

• Mariners outfielder Franklin Gutierrez is punishing pitchers, leading AL center fielders in homers, RBI, hits, runs, and total bases.

Get used to seeing Halladay in this uniform.

As probably the only loyal Toronto Blue Jays fan in Minnesota for the last 22 years, this week has been a long time coming. The reality that no one is talking about is that it probably still will be. The Jays officially listed Roy Halladay on Major League Baseball’s equivalent to trade market eBay this week and did so half heartedly.

“We’re not going to give the guy away,” general manager J.P. Ricciardi told MLB.com in a phone interview. “We’d be willing to listen. That doesn’t mean we’d be willing to trade.”

Halladay is signed through the 2010 season at a salary not unreasonable for a premium starting pitcher in today’s market (prorated $14.25 million this season and $15.75 mil next season). While the impact a deal might have a team’s farm system would be significant, that is a bargain for anytime looking to shore up their rotation, including the rumored Phillies, Angels, Giants, Dodgers, and Cardinals. But while the number of blog posts since Roy hit the market likely rivals the MIchael Jackson news feeds, I’m not convinced the Jays ace will be dealt this year or this offseason.

Why?

On one level there is the GM’s language the must confuse everyone from the Rogers Centre’s hotdog vendor to the nearest rival GM. Right after seemingly putting him on the market, Ricciardi told MLB.com, “I don’t think anything’s changed, it’s not like we’re moving him.” Beyond this, both Halladay and the Jays have made it clear that they intend to negotiate a contract extension this coming offseason. The bottom line is fantasy owners don’t need to worry about how Doc Halladay’s fantasy value may be affected by a potential relocation. Once the buzz wears off, more analysts will realize this fact.

"Cueto" is spanish for overrated.

There have been some real surprising starts by some otherwise effective to dominant starting pitchers as of late. This has me questioning if it’s time to start worrying about a couple guys we fantasy owners depend on to carry us to the promised land.

JOHAN SANTANA, METS
Santana allowed a mere four earned runs and put up a 0.96 WHIP in 46 innings. It’s been fairly rough ever since. One interesting point is that he’s thrown over 100 pitches in all but four of his last 15 starts, leading one to suggest fatigue may be setting in. You can write off some of this, but a rise in his HR/9IP, in his opponents batting average, and a slide in his dominance rate (K/9IP) should be enough for fantasy owners to take this a bit more seriously.

His numbers over the last few months should be enough warning, as all his peripheral stats have taken a pronounced plunge–particularly his dominance rate, which has fallen from 12.1 to 11.3 to 4.5 in June. Given the incredible numbers over his nine-year career, it’s difficult for some fantasy owners to admit baseball’s formerly most dominant starting pitcher has lost a step, but they need to accept the fact that Venezuela’s finest has eclipsed the 30-year old mark–an age in which the decline in starting pitchers start to decline. It’s important to note that this slide isn’t unique to this season. Over the last three seasons, he’s seen a noticeable decline in his dominance rate (9.4 to 9.7 to 7.9), his strikeout-to-walk rate (5.2 to 4.5 to 3.3), and BB/9IP (1.8 to 2.1 to 2.4). For the first time in recent memory, it’s time fantasy owners consider selling Johan at the first chance that his value rebounds slightly.

JOHNNY CUETO, REDS
The cat may be outta the bag after Cueto’s debacle against the Phillies on Monday in which he retired just two of the 11 batters he faced and couldn’t get out of the first inning after allowing nine earned runs, two homers, and three walks, while striking out one. He’ll still ranks among the top 16 hurlers in the National League in ERA, top six in wins, and top 25 in strikeouts, but his fantasy owners are assuming a great risk by leaving him in their lineup.

There is that great indicator of a falling dominance rate (8.2 in 2008 versus 6.4 in 2009) and his fly ball rate hasn’t improved, which is reason enough to expect Monday’s affinity for the long ball becoming something of a trend-particularly in the hitter-friendly home ballpark in which he plays half his games.

Mejia has front of the rotation potential.

First off I’ll apologize for the minimal frequency for which I’ve been posting. I’m still hectic at the 9-to-5 job and trying to work out a regular posting schedule as well as entice some additional authors to join in the fun. I’ve recently come across a player who I’m extremely excited about and hype is just start to grow around him. I’m referring to 19-year old Mets  pitching prospect, Jenrry Mejia.

Mejia has ascended all the way to Double-A Binghamton, putting up a 4-4 record, 2.50 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.5 K/9IP, and nearly a 3.0 K:BB ratio in 68 combined innings at Single and Double-A. All while signing for less than $20k out of the Dominican Republic. There is a terrifc writeup about him over at FanGraphs you should check out, but rest assured he’s going to climb up prospect rankings rapidly if his success continues.

To conclude, Joel Sherman of the NY Post recently asked a scout about Mejia and whether or not he’s the team’s top pitching prospect. To which the response was, “This kid has a muscular, powerful body. There is power to his body. I have no issues with his perceived lack of height. He held his velocity at 95 mph through seven innings. I don’t see him wearing down just because he is not 6-foot-4. He also has a good mound presence. He has a plus changeup, and an average slider and curveball. So he has a change that is very good and his curve might be better than average. He just doesn’t have to use it much right now. So he has two plus pitches, and a couple of average ones. So he starts for me.”