The Yakker


Pale Hosed Peavy?
May 21, 2009, 11:15 am
Filed under: Uncategorized
You cant see me!

You can't see me!

ESPN is reporting that Padres ace Jake Peavy will be the newest member of the Chicago White Sox, assuming he decides to waive his no-trade clause. The report indicates that the Padres will receive four players including pitchers Clayton Richard and top pitching prospect Aaron Poreda, but highly anticipated shortstop prospect Gordon Beckham is NOT included in the package.

“Jake called me [Wednesday] afternoon to ask about what it’s like here in Chicago,” former teammate Scott Linebrink told ESPNChicago.com’s Bruce Levine. “I think he’s ready to move on, but I can’t tell you for sure he’s going to accept the deal. Losing 100 games, like they did last year, wears on a player. Right now, I’d say it’s 50-50 as to whether he accepts it or not. He’ll get with his family today and make a decision.”

The Padres are approximately $5 million over the budget set by team owner John Moores, and this deal would obviously help solve that issue since Peavy is due $11 million this season.

The 2007 National League Cy Young winner won the pitching triple crown that year (Wins, Strikeouts, ERA) and has been one of the better pitchers in the NL for much of his eight plus major league seasons. This is partly why he’s always expressed a desire to stay in the same league rather than jump to the American League, but despite there currently being three teams ahead of the Sox in the American League Central, they are only 5.5 games out of first place in a division that clearly seems like almost anyone’s for the taking (sorry Cleveland).

While the best part of this deal is obviously that Peavy won’t be forced to wear those god awful camouflage uniforms, the worst part is clearly the change in home locale.  US Cellular is much, much less forgiving and while he’s always been slightly more of a ground ball pitcher than a fly ball one, his HR/9IP has risen over the last couple seasons. Even if that is due to some elbow soreness he’s dealt with over the last two years.

The bottom line is that I see the best case scenario for Peavy owners being what they are currently getting with an occasional blow up thrown in to keep you honest. I’m really not a fan of the home ballpark and the fact he won’t get the easy free pass in the form of throwing to the opposing pitcher that he got in the NL. Fantasy owners should stay tuned.

EDITORS NOTE: Peavy has decided to exercise his no-trade clause and not join the Chicago White Sox. It seems like just a matter of time until he’s dealt to a team he will accept.



What’s Happ’ning
May 19, 2009, 5:03 pm
Filed under: Uncategorized
The Phils are phinally turning to Happ.

The Phils are phinally turning to Happ.

Whenever a major league team allows Chan Ho Park to waste away in one of their starting rotation spots, a variety of thoughts cross my mind. They aren’t limited to: (A) Mike Maroth wasn’t available, (B) Even Horacio Ramirez got a raise after a 2007 season that ranked among the 13 worst in the history of modern baseball, including a 1.85 WHIP, and (C) there has to be a young prospect with more potential than Park.

Luckily after much deliberation, the Phillies chose (C).

JA Happ has finally seemed to get his game back after an elbow injury dating back to 2007 served as a significant bump in the road. In 21.7 innings so far this season, Happ has gone 2-0 record with a 2.49 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and is certainly a guy fantasy owners should be watching.

Reasons I’d be hesitant to plug him into your lineup immediately include a slight fly-ball tendency and lack of a true out pitch. It’s tough to imagine him being as worthless as Park, but his starting debut against the Yankees this weekend should go a long way towards determining how much long-term value he possesses.



Stevie Wonderful
May 16, 2009, 11:08 pm
Filed under: Uncategorized
Everything he touches turns to gold.

Everything he touches turns to gold.

The fine folks over at Project Prospect did some excellent scouting analysis on soon to be first overall pick, San Diego State pitcher Stephen Strasburg. If you remember Mark Prior’s rapid ascent to the majors after nine minor league starts, it’s easy to see Strasburg making a quicker run through the junior circuit–particularly since he’s likely to be throwing for the Washington Nationals, a team seemingly void of much quality starting pitching.



Medlen Not to Be Overshadowed
May 16, 2009, 7:59 pm
Filed under: Uncategorized
No reason to meddle away with Jo-Jo when youve got Medlen

Don't meddle away with Jo-Jo when you've got Medlen

It’s a misprint right? They meant to call up uber prospect Tommy Hanson to fill Jo-Jo Reyes’ vacated rotation spot. There isn’t a spell checker out there that will auto correct Hanson with Medlen…as in lefty Kris Medlen.

Medlen edged out Hanson narrowly when the Braves needed to make a decision, with a 5-0 record, 0.96 ERA, 10.6 K/9IP, 4.4 K:BB ratio, and .152 BAA in 37.3 innings pitched at Triple-A Gwinnett. To be fair, Hanson was 1-3 with a 1.99 ERA, 12.6 K/9IP, 4.4 K:BB ratio, and a 1.86 BAA in 40.2 IP. At the time of the promotion, Medlen led the International League in ERA and wins (tied) and was sporting a 21-inning scoreless streak.

“This guy has been absolutely dominant,” Braves general manager Frank Wren told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “Also we’re looking at a time window; that’s the other consideration. I think if we were looking at the long haul, and there was a situation for a starter to come up and be a starter for the rest of the season, it would probably be Tommy [Hanson].”

I understand the argument, but it’s at least somewhat flawed.

While Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, and Javier Vazquez have an ERA under 4.00 and WHIP better than 1.35 the lone remaining rotation member (Kenshin Kawakami) has been quite pedestrian to the tune of a 2-4 record, 5.79 ERA, 1.68 WHIP and very modest 1.7 K:BB ratio. If that’s not enough, Braves brass claims the Medlen call-up is merely to bridge the gap until 90-year old Tom Glavine can return from shoulder discomfort. The problem with that is Glavine has no timetable for his return and has conceded that if his shoulder issues don’t subside he won’t hesitate to retire. To me this means that Medlen has an opportunity to stick in the rotation if the results justify it.

“We’re bringing the guy that was throwing the best in AAA,” Wren said. Despite being just 5-10 (small for a starting pitcher) he has a polished, effortless delivery and his durability has never been in question. His success at Triple-A this season shows that his command is starting to improve to the level of his control and his aggressive approach on the mound only serves to make his 94-mph fastball, great curveball, and solid changeup and slider that much more effective. Fantasy owners in deeper mixed leagues with a roster spot wasting away should have Medlen on their radar as he prepares to face the Rockies on Tuesday. One solid start is enough to justify gambling on him.



Burn Mannywood Burn
May 7, 2009, 8:30 pm
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , ,
That does smell like human chorionic gonadotropin.

That doesn't smell like HcG.

I’d be amiss to let the day pass without providing my take on the Manny Ramirez PED (HCG — human chorionic gonadotropin-a female fertility drug that provides artificial testosterone) suspension, but I’m not going to dwell on the part of the story that every other media outlet is already hammering home. He’s out until July (50 games) and for his fantasy owners it’s sure to suck worse than a bull rider with a case of hemorrhoids. Enough said.

What I think is more worthwhile to discuss is the widespread thought that the protection a player like Manny offers the players around him in the lineup, mainly second baseman Orlando Hudson and outfielder Andre Ethier, are due for a pronounced decline.

Color me skeptical.

There have been significant research studies done on this very thought and you might find the results interesting. In 1992, David Grabiner looked at 25 players from the 1991 American League season who had as many at-bats with and without a slugger on-deck. He found no evidence that a better on-deck batter helped the preceding hitter. That was immediately followed by Dylan Wright’s study that relied on Grabiner’s guidelines to run the 2002 National League season through the ringer. At best he found mixed results, which is enough reason not to put your faith in the concept of lineup protection.

No offense to Grabiner and Wright, but I’m not familiar with them so I then set out to find a study from someone I know. That led me to the fine folks at Baseball Prospectus. In a column from Will Carroll, he talked about how both Ethier and retired second baseman Jeff Kent believed they saw better pitches when hitting in front of Ramirez.  Carroll draws a logical conclusion that by “better pitches,” the players are referring to both a higher percentage of fastballs and an overall higher percentage of pitches seen in the strike zone, regardless of type. Carroll then calls upon Prospectus’ robust Pitch F/X data to compare data before Manny arrived and after he was settled into L.A.

PRE-HITTING BEFORE MANNY
Fastballs: 61.7%
Cu/Sl: 23.7%
Changeup: 14.6%
Pitches per PA: 3.75
Pitches in the Generous Strike Zone: 55.5%

HITTING BEFORE MANNY
Fastballs: 62.7%
Cu/Sl: 23.0%
Changeup: 14.3%
Pitches per PA: 4.32
Pitches in the Generous Strike Zone: 56.6%

It proved that he saw the same variety of pitches and virtually the same number of those offerings fell in the strike zone.

In the 1985 Baseball Abstract, statistical guru Bill James concocted a study of Dale Murphy and Bob Horner and came to the conlusion that while Murphy hit better with Horner in the lineup than not, the result wasn’t reflected in the statistics.

So at this point I would say the jury is still out, but there is clearly evidence to disprove the concept of lineup protection. I would conclude that Ethier and Hudson may see different pitches in different counts, but the impact on their overall numbers won’t be pronounced. I guess we’ll revisit this when the HCG wears off.



Hello world!
May 5, 2009, 1:16 am
Filed under: Uncategorized

Welcome to The Yakker! I’m the author and my name is Chris Bracke. I have 15 years of fantasy baseball experience and eight years of experience writing in the industry for well respected sites such as KFFL.com, Mock Draft Central, Roto Times and Fanball.com. I’m looking forward to providing the same insight my past work gave readers while remembering that everything I write will have a fantasy slant on it.